With the NFL Draft coming up this Thursday, sports bettors everywhere have been scrambling to find edges in every possible line offered by sportsbooks. But thankfully you don’t have to be like those scrubs, because you have Bet The Dog in your life. I’ve spent way too much time reading draft summaries and studying what pick the majority think these kids will be heading to, and I’m here to share these three winners with you. To determine what makes a “best prop bet” I looked at the value of the line and compared it with the likelihood of it hitting, based off football
nerds experts mock drafts. Here’s what I’ve come up with:
LSU’s Thaddeus Moss (TE) – u94.5 (1.5 units)
If I can be completely transparent, this number makes absolutely zero fucking sense. We are not talking about just anybody when we talk about National Champion Thaddeus Moss; we are talking about a direct decedent of Randy Moss. If I were an NFL GM, and I had the chance to put any of Randy Moss’ kids on my roster, even if he was in a wheelchair, I’d do it in a heartbeat. But to just to sell you on this pick even further: guess how many passes Thaddeus Moss dropped in 2019? Zero. Although some experts have put him around 129th, I think this kid is going before the 95th pick.
Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb (WR) – u12.5 – (2 units)
The conversation surrounding this draft class is the incredible talent at the wideout position, especially debate starting to arise whether CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy will be the first reciever selected. It’s important to keep in mind that some teams may need a slot guy, while others are in the market for a big man. That said, it’s almost a lock whoever gets picked first, the other will be second. But for this line, it doesn’t really matter. The Jets have the 11th overall pick and Raiders have the 12th overall pick, both teams could use a talented WR, so 12.5 is a lock. The only thing I’m more sure of is that we will all get sick of “CeeDee’s Nuts” jokes by week 17.
Exact Order – 1. Burrow 2. Young 3. Okudah (3 units)
I got this line at +125, and honestly, getting an underdog value for the most likely outcome is something you have to take. The only thing that could fuck this up is a team trading up last minute, but assuming that doesn’t happen: Cincy gets their hero with the most obvious first overall pick since Andrew Luck. Washington probably won’t get Tua since they just got Haskins, who will probably get one more season to earn the starting job. With Washington getting Nick Bosa Jr., that just leaves Detroit, with a defensive minded coach, who can grab Jeff Okudah, lethal corner to make this defense feared.
As always, take what you like, leave what you don’t, but most importantly: Let’s get fucking rich.